为什么 Oracle 是你应该比 BlackRock 更害怕的阴暗科技巨头

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V64TdrkhTqo

在企业巨头世界中，像BlackRock这样的名字经常主导关于幕后权力和影响力的对话。他们是关于全球权力从阴暗董事会操控的叙事中的常见嫌疑人。但当我们的注意力集中在他们身上时，另一种更隐蔽的权力正在雷达下巩固其影响力。那家公司是Oracle，有一个令人信服的论点认为它正在成为的东西远更令人担忧。

Just recently, Oracle's founder, Larry Ellison, briefly became the world's richest person，不是因为他的公司取得了惊人业绩，而是恰恰相反。Oracle reported lower-than-projected earnings, yet its market value skyrocketed by over 30% in a single day——这一增幅超过了麦当劳的整个市值。这一反常的金融事件并非偶然，而是一个信号。它是围绕人工智能精心编织的叙事所致，Oracle正利用这一叙事在科技、媒体和政治领域展开惊人的权力攫取。本文将层层剥开金融运作、政治影响力和战略收购的面纱，揭示为什么Oracle不仅是一个即将到来的重大科技故事，更是一种即将影响你生活的潜在力量，无论你是否意识到。

What Exactly Is Oracle?

Core Definition and Misconceptions

在其近50年的历史中，Oracle大多被视为传统科技巨头的典型——一家可靠但乏善可陈的企业软件和数据库管理系统提供商。如果你未曾在企业IT或数据管理领域工作，可能完全不知道这家公司实际在做什么。其核心业务是向“无趣的企业客户销售无趣的软件订阅”，为自己开辟了一个稳定但低增长的利基市场。行业口碑甚至暗示其在这项核心业务上并不特别出色。投资者将其视为成熟、可预测的在位者，而非颠覆性力量。

However, this perception is now dangerously outdated. Over the last year, Oracle has undergone a radical transformation, effectively rebranding itself as a "born-again AI startup"。如今最大的误解是仍用旧视角看待Oracle。该公司已激进转向，成为AI基础设施的关键参与者，建设大规模数据中心，并向需要海量算力训练AI模型的公司出售访问权限。这一战略转变让Oracle摆脱了“古老”形象，转而拥抱通常只属于敏捷高增长初创公司的狂热与天价估值。那个无趣的老Oracle已不复存在，取而代之的是一家将AI炒作作为主要增长和影响力武器的公司。

Why Oracle's Growing Power Is So Important

Oracle今日的重要性远超其资产负债表；它在于前所未有地整合了现代生活关键领域的影响力。该公司已不再只是软件供应商，而是正在成为数据、媒体和政治准入的中枢神经系统，创造出少数组织能匹敌的权力 nexus。

First, Oracle is positioning itself to be a gatekeeper of the digital public square。通过一笔受政府监管的交易，Oracle was selected to take over operational control of TikTok's US arm，包括其至关重要的算法和敏感用户数据。这让一家拥有深厚政治关系的单一企业，对数百万美国人的信息流动拥有巨大影响力。虽然由美国公司控制这些数据似乎比中国公司更好，但交易条款的不透明和看似优惠的条件，引发了关于公平性和政治游说作用的严重质疑。

Second, Oracle is playing a pivotal role in sustaining the current AI investment bubble。其惊人的财务数据建立在少数几笔巨额、可能存在循环的交易之上，帮助制造出一个无限扩张市场的幻象。这不仅扭曲了市场现实，还集中了基础设施权力，因为越来越多的AI开发依赖于Oracle的云服务。

Finally, through the strategic acquisitions of the Ellison family, this technological power is merging with traditional media control. Larry Ellison's son, David Ellison, heads Skydance Media, which has already taken over Paramount，据报道正targeting Warner Bros.。这可能创造历史上最大的媒体集团之一，由同一家族控制，该家族同时掌控着主要社交媒体算法和AI生态系统的基础组件。这种权力三合一——社交媒体、传统媒体和AI基础设施——正是为什么Oracle的崛起不仅是一个商业故事，更是对社会具有深远影响的发展。

How Oracle's Financials Work: A House of Cards?

Oracle价值最近的飙升将其推向AI宇宙中心，其基础是令人难以置信的惊人财务数据。理解这些数字如何运作，是理解公司整体战略的关键。它似乎是一个巧妙但脆弱的纸上价值大厦，旨在攫取现实世界的权力。

The engine of this boom is a single, headline-grabbing announcement: Oracle had secured almost half a trillion dollars ($455 billion) in backlogged orders from AI companies。这一数字 alone 推动了股价飙升，因为公司财报中的其他一切“充其量平平”。投资者急于不错过“下一个Nvidia”，蜂拥而入，忽略了显而易见的令人不安的细节。

There are three major problems with this half-trillion-dollar figure:

Unsustainable Spending: 来自少数几份合同的4550亿美元投资，超过了美国GDP的2%。要使这一支出水平合理，生成式AI需要做的不仅仅是创造“方便的小技术”；它必须以切实、经济上富有成效的方式“彻底重塑世界”。随着对AI即时颠覆规模的怀疑增加，此类巨额承诺的可持续性高度存疑。

Extreme Client Concentration:Buried in the financial letter is the admission that this massive backlog comes from just four contracts with three clients。这意味着每个客户平均承诺超过1500亿美元。合乎逻辑的问题是，为什么拥有如此巨额资本的公司不自己建造数据中心，而是从Oracle租用。

A Circular Flow of Money: 这一问题的答案揭示了该计划最令人担忧的部分。负责超过3000亿美元积压的最大客户是OpenAI。问题在于OpenAI并没有3000亿美元。要履行这一承诺，它需要大量投资者现金注入。巧合的是，与此同时，Nvidia等主要AI玩家宣布向OpenAI投资1000亿美元，专门用于通过与Oracle等交易建设其计算机基础设施。关键在于：Oracle反过来正在使用价值数十亿美元的Nvidia GPU建设其新的AI数据中心。

This creates a closed loop: Investor money (from companies like Nvidia) flows into OpenAI, which then shows up as massive deferred revenue on Oracle's books, which in turn uses that perceived financial strength to buy more hardware from Nvidia. This circular flow makes all companies involved look far more successful and promising than they might actually be, attracting even more outside investment and keeping the AI bubble inflated.

How Oracle Uses Its Influence in Real Life

Oracle膨胀的纸面价值不仅仅是炫耀；它正被用作货币来收购有形的现实世界资产和影响力。Larry Ellison及其公司长期以来利用财富谋求政治权力，每年花费数百万美元进行游说和政治捐款。Ellison himself was a major, if low-key, spender in the last election cycle，Oracle高管曾在政府中担任关键职位。这一政治资本投资似乎正在产生惊人回报。

The most glaring example is the acquisition of TikTok's U.S. operations. Amid national security concerns, TikTok's parent company, ByteDance, was compelled to sell its American arm in a deal heavily monitored by the U.S. government. Oracle was "selected and approved" as the technology partner to handle the new platform on its cloud infrastructure。这一举措赋予Oracle对TikTok强大算法的影响力和对其庞大敏感用户数据的访问权。招标过程因不透明而受到批评，据报道$14 billion valuation is considered a fraction of its true worth——保守估计，仅按美国销售额计算，其价值应比Instagram等竞争对手高十倍。这一有利、看似非竞争性的交易是在多年专注政治游说之后达成的，表明了明确的投资回报。

This influence extends beyond tech into the realm of traditional media, orchestrated by the Ellison family. Larry Ellison's son, David Ellison, founded Skydance Media in 2010 with $350 million in seed capital from his father and associates。该公司以惊人速度扩张，taking over media giant Paramount，据报道正eyeing an acquisition of Warner Bros.。如果成功，这将创造一个仅15年前起步、却得到Oracle财富大力支持的史上最大媒体集团之一。这种政府、科技和媒体之间的亲密关系已经引发关注，尤其是围绕重大交易评估期间某批判性节目被取消等巧合事件。

The Future of Oracle: A Media-Tech Dynasty

Oracle的未来轨迹指向前所未有的权力整合，最终可能形成一种媒体科技王朝。AI基础设施、社交媒体控制和传统媒体所有权的独立线索，正准备在单一家族的影响下交织在一起，创造出一个类似于“Rupert Murdoch与Mark Zuckerberg混合体”的混合实体。

The key to this future lies in both synergy and succession. On the synergy front, David Ellison has been a vocal proponent of using AI to cut costs in movie production——这一举措被描述为该技术最糟糕的应用场景之一。这与Oracle对AI的大力投资直接一致，创造了一个垂直整合的生态系统，家族的科技公司提供驱动家族媒体帝国的AI基础设施。这带来了竞争对手难以复制的效率和控制力。

The succession piece is even more critical. Larry Ellison is 81 years old。虽然其遗产的确切细节保密，但普遍认为他将把对Oracle的重大影响力传给儿子David。这意味着一个人可能同时掌控世界上最大的社交媒体平台之一（TikTok美国）、最大的传统媒体集团之一（Paramount-Skydance，可能包括Warner Bros.）以及AI云基础设施的基础提供商（Oracle）。

Unlike highly visible companies like Disney or Facebook, Oracle and Skydance have remained relatively low-key to the average person. This lack of public scrutiny has allowed them to assemble this powerful combination of assets without widespread alarm. The future, therefore, holds the challenge of a single, unelected entity having immense control over the information we consume, the entertainment we watch, and the underlying technology that powers our digital lives. They could soon become just as important, if not more so, than any tech or media giant we know today.

Conclusion: Key Takeaways on Oracle's Silent Rise

Oracle近期转型的故事，是关于现代权力如何构建的关键教训。这是一场涉及金融魔术、精明政治运作和战略收购的多幕剧。关键要点清晰且令人担忧。首先，Oracle masterfully used the AI hype to generate immense paper value from almost nothing，将平平的财务数据转化为建立在少数可疑循环合同之上的爆炸性增长叙事。

Second, the company is expertly converting this speculative, on-paper wealth into hard, real-world assets with immense strategic value. By securing control over TikTok's U.S. operations at a bargain price and moving to dominate the traditional media landscape through family connections, Oracle is grabbing tangible power that will outlast any tech bubble.

最后，这一切汇聚成潜在的王朝式权力集中，一个家族可能同时影响顶级社交媒体平台、传统媒体帝国以及支撑未来的AI基础设施。虽然BlackRock等公司因其金融影响力占据头条，但Oracle正在构建一个更整合、可能更可怕的东西：一个科技与信息的沉默帝国。他们可能在后台运作，但其重要性正在增长，是时候让我们开始关注了。

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) about Oracle

1. What does Oracle actually do?

Oracle historically has been an enterprise software company, providing database technology and cloud systems for large businesses. Recently, however, it has aggressively rebranded itself as a major player in Artificial Intelligence，专注于为其他公司建设和出租大规模AI数据中心基础设施。

2. Is Oracle's AI business financially sustainable?

There are significant questions about its sustainability. Oracle's massive reported backlog of AI orders (nearly half a trillion dollars) comes from just three clients，且依赖可能不可持续的支出水平。此外，有证据表明存在资金循环流动，投资在Oracle、其客户（如OpenAI）和供应商（如Nvidia）之间流转，使这些公司看起来比实际更有价值，以吸引更多外部投资者。

3. How is Oracle's influence different from a company like BlackRock?

While a company like BlackRock wields immense financial influence through asset management, Oracle's power is becoming more direct and structural. Oracle is consolidating control over the actual infrastructure of information——获得对主要社交媒体算法（TikTok）的影响力，旨在控制庞大的传统媒体集团（Paramount/Warner Bros.），并拥有将为未来技术提供动力的AI数据中心。这以独特方式结合了金融、政治和文化权力。

4. How did Oracle get control of TikTok's US operations?

Oracle was "selected and approved" by the U.S. government to take over the management of TikTok's U.S. data and algorithm，在其中国母公司ByteDance被迫出售之后。这一决定是在Oracle及其创始人Larry Ellison多年大力政治游说之后做出的。The deal was seen as highly favorable to Oracle，该公司以远低于市场价值的估值收购了该平台。

5. What is the biggest long-term risk of Oracle's strategy?

The biggest long-term risk is the unprecedented concentration of media, social media, and technological power within a single family, the Ellisons. With Larry Ellison's son, David, controlling a growing media empire (Skydance/Paramount)，并可能继承对Oracle的影响力，一个人可能很快对我们观看的内容、社交媒体上看到的内容以及塑造我们数字体验的AI拥有重大影响力。这创造了一个“Murdoch遇见Zuckerberg”的场景，对民主和信息自由流动具有深远影响。