China’s TV Upgrade Is Closing the Gap With Samsung and LG

Chinese TV makers entered 2026 with a difficult combination: weak domestic demand, rising component costs, and no room to depend on low-end volume. Despite those pressures, TCL and Hisense gained ground through larger screens, Mini LED products, and faster overseas expansion.

A CITIC Securities research note summarized by 36Kr argues that this shift is lifting both market share and profitability. The note also says mainland panel manufacturers now control more than 70% of global LCD TV panel shipments.

That concentration matters because televisions are no longer a simple contest over how many units each brand can sell. Chinese manufacturers are increasingly competing in the large-screen and premium categories once associated with Samsung, LG, and Sony.

The headline growth figures still require caution. Some first-half shipments reflected early inventory building, World Cup promotions, and temporary regional demand. China’s domestic market also contracted after government stimulus weakened.

The real question is whether TCL, Hisense, BOE, and TCL CSOT have created a lasting structural advantage. The available data suggests they have changed the competitive balance, but not settled it.

Global TV Demand Recovered, but the Recovery Was Uneven

The first-half rebound came from sharply different regional conditions, not a broad return to healthy consumer demand.

Global branded TV shipments reached 47.12 million units in the first quarter, according to a shipment update from TrendForce. That represented 3.3% year-over-year growth and the strongest first-quarter result since the pandemic.

The quarterly comparison looked less encouraging. Shipments declined 12.7% from the previous quarter, while TrendForce continued to describe underlying demand as conservative.

Part of the growth came from manufacturers pulling orders forward. Memory prices began rising during late 2025 as suppliers prioritized demand from AI servers and advanced computing systems.

TV brands responded by securing components and building inventory before those costs moved higher. That behavior supported shipments, but it did not necessarily indicate stronger household demand.

The second quarter produced another positive headline. Omdia estimated that global shipments increased 3.6% year over year to 48.8 million units.

Its second-quarter data linked that increase to World Cup demand and the timing of Amazon Prime Day. Those events created identifiable purchasing windows in several major markets.

Western Europe grew 9.5% during the quarter, while North America increased 4.7%. Eastern Europe advanced 14.5%, and Latin America and the Caribbean grew 12.8%.

China moved in the opposite direction. Shipments there fell 15.1% after local stimulus programs ended and earlier purchases reduced near-term replacement demand.

That divergence explains why Chinese brands are placing greater emphasis on international markets. Domestic unit growth can no longer support their expansion by itself.

TCL benefited from this approach in the first quarter. TrendForce estimated that its shipments increased 11.3% to 7.68 million units, the fastest growth among the five largest brands.

Expansion in North America and emerging markets contributed to that performance. A stronger mix of Mini LED and large-screen models also helped TCL gain share without relying entirely on entry-level televisions.

Hisense followed a similar geographic strategy. Its sponsorships, retail partnerships, and broad product range increased visibility outside China, particularly around major sporting events.

The regional data nevertheless warns against calling the first half a conventional recovery. Event-driven purchases can move demand between quarters without creating a larger replacement cycle.

Inflation also continued to pressure household budgets. At the same time, higher memory costs threatened to raise manufacturing expenses across the industry.

TrendForce expects global TV shipments to decline 1% for the full year, reaching 194.2 million units. That forecast implies that first-half growth will not continue at the same pace.

The market is therefore recovering selectively. Brands with international distribution, component scale, and differentiated products have room to grow, even while total industry volume remains constrained.

This environment favors larger manufacturers because they can spread development and marketing costs across more units. They can also redirect inventory when demand weakens in one region.

Smaller brands face a harder choice. They must accept thinner margins, reduce lower-end production, or shift into larger products where their technology and distribution remain less established.

That pressure is turning an uneven demand cycle into a structural test. The winners will not simply ship more televisions during one quarter. They will use the cycle to improve their product mix and strengthen their position with retailers.

Larger Screens Are Changing the Economics of the Market

Screen size has become a margin strategy, not merely a product preference.

Television replacement cycles are long, especially in mature markets. Manufacturers cannot assume that households will purchase another set because of a modest resolution or software update.

A noticeably larger screen provides a clearer reason to upgrade. It also gives manufacturers more space to differentiate through brightness, local dimming, industrial design, audio, and gaming features.

Component inflation has strengthened that incentive. Memory represents a larger share of the manufacturing cost for smaller televisions than for larger models.

TrendForce estimated that memory’s share of a 32-inch television’s production cost rose from 6% to 7% previously, to 15% during the first quarter. The same share for a 65-inch model increased from 2% to 3%, to 10%.

That difference makes low-margin, small televisions less attractive when memory prices rise. Manufacturers cannot always pass the increase to customers without damaging the product’s value proposition.

TrendForce expects 32-inch shipments to fall 9.1% during 2026. The category would then represent 19% of global TV shipments.

By comparison, models measuring 65 inches or larger are expected to approach 25% of annual shipments. Brands are concentrating promotion and retail space around 65-inch and 75-inch televisions.

The shift also changes how panel shipments should be interpreted. Unit volume can remain flat or decline while the total display area shipped continues to increase.

That pattern appeared in the first half. RUNTO estimated that manufacturers shipped 120.2 million large LCD TV panels, while total shipment area reached 91.3 million square meters.

The industry’s panel shipment tally showed that area increased 2.8% year over year. Second-quarter area growth reached 6.8%, exceeding the increase in panel units.

More display area means panel suppliers can support revenue without matching earlier unit growth. It also lets television brands move customers toward models with higher absolute gross profit.

Large screens create logistical challenges, however. Shipping, warehousing, installation, and returns all become more expensive as panel size increases.

The strategy therefore rewards brands with established local distribution and service networks. Exporting a television is only one step in selling it successfully.

TCL and Hisense have spent years building those capabilities. Their international expansion now gives them a channel for the capacity developed by China’s display supply chain.

Large-screen positioning also changes consumer perceptions. A brand known mainly for affordable televisions can build credibility through flagship products, even if most customers purchase lower models.

That halo effect has long benefited Samsung, LG, and Sony. Chinese brands are now applying the same logic while retaining aggressive manufacturing costs.

Hisense’s position in the largest size category illustrates the result. According to an Omdia figure distributed by the company, Hisense held 55.1% of global shipments for televisions measuring at least 100 inches.

The figure covers the first half of 2026 and represents shipment share, not retail revenue. It should therefore be read as evidence of scale in a narrow segment.

Still, that segment carries strategic importance beyond its unit count. Very large televisions demonstrate panel access, image-processing capability, retail execution, and confidence in premium branding.

The migration toward larger screens also weakens the old boundary between a mass-market Chinese brand and a premium Korean or Japanese one. Consumers increasingly encounter those brands in the same size and display categories.

That does not mean the products are interchangeable. Software support, processing quality, service, design, and long-term reliability remain important differences.

It does mean that size alone no longer protects established premium brands. TCL and Hisense can now offer similarly prominent hardware at the center of a retailer’s showroom.

Mini LED Gives TCL and Hisense Their Strongest Opening

Mini LED is allowing Chinese brands to combine supply-chain scale with a visible premium feature.

Mini LED televisions use many small light-emitting diodes behind an LCD panel. Grouped dimming zones control different parts of the image to improve brightness and contrast.

The technology sits between conventional LCD and self-emissive displays such as OLED. It preserves the brightness and manufacturing scale of LCD while addressing some of its weaker black levels.

Chinese manufacturers entered this category with close links between panel production, backlighting, electronics, and final assembly. That integration helped them introduce more models and reduce the technology’s cost.

TrendForce expects global Mini LED TV shipments to reach 24.9 million units in 2026. That would represent 87% year-over-year growth and 12.8% penetration of the global market.

TCL, Hisense, and Xiaomi collectively held 54% of Mini LED shipments when TrendForce published its first-quarter analysis. This share gave Chinese brands a meaningful lead during the category’s expansion.

The technology also aligns well with the large-screen strategy. Greater brightness and more dimming zones become easier to demonstrate on a large display in a brightly lit store.

TCL led global Mini LED shipments with a 30.2% share during the first quarter, according to Omdia. Samsung then expanded its lineup and reached 28.2% during the second quarter.

Samsung’s move from third place to first demonstrates that the opening remains contested. Established brands can respond by broadening their ranges and lowering entry points.

This is the central competitive tension. Chinese brands helped turn Mini LED into a mainstream premium option, but mainstream success attracts larger rivals.

Samsung does not need to abandon its existing position to compete. It can use its global distribution, brand recognition, and display expertise to defend the category.

LG also expanded its Mini LED lineup during the second quarter. At the same time, its OLED range gives it another premium route that TCL and Hisense must address.

OLED creates light at each pixel instead of using an LCD backlight. That design supports precise black levels and avoids the blooming artifacts sometimes visible around bright Mini LED objects.

Mini LED answers with high brightness, larger affordable screen options, and improving control over dimming zones. The choice remains a tradeoff rather than a universal technical victory.

A newer form, RGB Mini LED, adds another layer to the contest. It uses separately controlled red, green, and blue backlight elements to expand color control.

Omdia counted 295,000 RGB LED television shipments during the second quarter. Hisense began the year with a 77.2% share, while China represented 88.8% of the market.

By the second quarter, Hisense’s share had fallen to 42.9%. Samsung and Sony gained ground as additional products entered the market.

That rapid change provides a useful warning. A first-mover advantage in a new display category can disappear once competitors reach retailers with credible alternatives.

It also shows why high-end product development must continue. A manufacturer cannot preserve premium positioning through one technology generation.

TCL and Hisense must improve picture processing, dimming algorithms, panel uniformity, and software alongside the backlight hardware. Buyers experience the complete television, not the component specification.

Retail presentation will matter as well. Omdia research manager Matthew Rubin said consumer preferences will depend on pricing and how clearly shoppers can evaluate RGB LED’s differences.

That observation applies across the Mini LED category. Large zone counts and brightness claims attract attention, but buyers still need visible benefits during normal viewing.

The category’s growth nonetheless marks a major change. Chinese brands are no longer entering premium television segments after their competitors establish them.

They are helping define the product roadmap. Samsung, LG, and Sony are responding to features, screen sizes, and manufacturing economics shaped partly by Chinese suppliers.

China’s Panel Concentration Reinforces the Brand Shift

The television contest increasingly rests on a display supply chain centered in mainland China.

Mainland manufacturers shipped about 87.1 million LCD TV panels during the first half, according to RUNTO. Their combined market share reached 72.4%, up 1.9 percentage points from one year earlier.

Taiwanese manufacturers AUO and Innolux held a combined 22.6%. Japanese and South Korean suppliers represented only 5% after years of capacity withdrawals and restructuring.

BOE remained the largest individual supplier. It shipped approximately 32.4 million panels and held 27% of the market despite a 1.7% annual decline.

TCL CSOT occupied the other position in the industry’s leading group. RUNTO defines that group as manufacturers shipping more than 50 million panels annually.

HKC ranked behind BOE and TCL CSOT, giving mainland China the first three positions by shipment volume. This concentration gives television brands access to a large domestic component base.

Panel manufacturing is highly capital intensive. Once a production line is operating, suppliers need high utilization because idle capacity can damage profitability.

Large Chinese television brands help absorb that output. In return, their scale and supplier relationships support faster product planning and tighter cost control.

TCL has an especially direct connection through TCL CSOT. The relationship links panel investment with decisions about television sizes, features, and shipment targets.

Vertical coordination does not remove market risk. A related panel producer still faces industry pricing, utilization, and technology constraints.

It can, however, shorten feedback between component development and final products. That becomes valuable when screen sizes and backlight designs change quickly.

BOE’s scale also matters across the wider market. Its panels can support several brands rather than only one television business.

The concentration of LCD capacity in China represents a deeper shift from earlier industry cycles. South Korean companies once controlled much of the high-value display supply chain.

Samsung Display and LG Display later reduced conventional LCD exposure while investing in OLED and other advanced displays. Chinese companies continued adding and consolidating large LCD capacity.

That transition gave China a dominant position in a technology some observers considered mature. Mini LED then extended the commercial life of that LCD base.

A Mini LED television still needs an LCD panel. Better backlights, optical materials, chips, and control software can raise its performance without replacing the underlying manufacturing system.

This is why the current upgrade differs from a simple branding campaign. It builds on production assets that already operate at enormous scale.

The same structure creates potential pressure, however. Concentrated capacity can intensify competition among suppliers when demand weakens.

Panel makers may reduce utilization to support prices, but each company also has an incentive to preserve its own shipments. That tension can produce recurring price cycles.

Television brands benefit when panel prices fall, while panel suppliers face weaker margins. Companies with exposure to both sides must balance those interests.

The result is not a perfectly integrated profit machine. It is a supply network with greater coordination and bargaining power than many smaller competitors possess.

For Samsung and LG, the response extends beyond sourcing. They need to maintain clear reasons for consumers to pay for their brands while Chinese competitors narrow visible hardware differences.

For Taiwanese suppliers, the issue is utilization and specialization. They must compete in selected sizes or applications without matching mainland China’s total scale.

For Sony and other brands without comparable panel capacity, image processing and brand trust become more important. Their differentiation must remain visible after the display hardware gap narrows.

China’s panel share therefore strengthens its television brands indirectly and directly. It improves component access while shifting the industry’s center of manufacturing influence.

Falling Panel Prices Help Brands, but They Test the Bull Case

Lower panel costs can support television margins, yet they also signal that demand and inventory remain fragile.

LCD TV panel prices reached a temporary peak during April and May before beginning to decline in June. Counterpoint expected that weakness to continue through the third quarter.

Its panel price forecast linked the decline to sufficient inventory and fewer immediate demand drivers after World Cup stocking.

The firm expected prices across screen sizes to decline during June. Its panel price index was projected to fall from 42.2 in April to 40 in August.

For television brands, lower panel prices can offset rising memory expenses. Displays represent a major portion of a television’s bill of materials, particularly in larger models.

TCL and Hisense can use that relief in several ways. They can protect margins, fund promotions, or improve product specifications without accepting the full cost.

None of those outcomes is automatic. Retail competition can transfer component savings to consumers before brands retain them as profit.

Samsung and LG can also benefit from lower LCD panel prices. The cost change does not belong exclusively to Chinese companies.

The advantage depends on purchasing scale, inventory timing, product mix, and retailer negotiations. A brand that bought heavily near the peak may realize savings later than a cautious competitor.

Falling prices also carry an unfavorable interpretation. They can indicate that brands already hold enough inventory and that sell-through is not keeping pace with production.

This distinction between shipments and retail sales is critical. Manufacturers can ship products into channels before consumers purchase them.

World Cup demand and Prime Day supported activity during the second quarter. Those events may leave fewer incremental buyers during the following months.

China’s 15.1% shipment decline adds another risk. Large international gains must continue if domestic weakness persists.

Policy support also complicates annual comparisons. Purchases brought forward by trade-in subsidies can raise one period and depress the next.

Technology adoption presents a separate uncertainty. Mini LED shipment growth does not guarantee that every participating brand will earn stronger margins.

As more manufacturers enter the category, price competition intensifies. Features that once distinguished flagships can move into midrange models quickly.

Omdia’s second-quarter figures already show this process. Mini LED reached 13% of global television shipments while Samsung reclaimed the shipment lead.

That combination confirms category growth but weakens any assumption that TCL will control it. Hisense’s declining RGB LED share delivers the same message.

The broader brand share tracker provides a balanced view. Samsung still led first-quarter global shipments with 17%.

TCL held 14%, while Hisense reached 13%. LG retained 9%.

TCL had narrowed its gap with Samsung to approximately 2.8 percentage points. That is meaningful progress, but Samsung remained ahead.

Shipment share also differs from revenue share and profit share. Premium incumbents can generate more revenue from fewer units when their average selling values remain higher.

Chinese brands therefore need more than volume. Their high-end strategy must produce durable gross profit, repeat purchases, and stronger brand preference.

Service quality represents another test. Large televisions create expensive failures and complicated returns, especially across international markets.

Software support creates similar long-term obligations. Buyers increasingly expect streaming compatibility, security updates, gaming features, and stable interfaces throughout a television’s life.

Rapid model expansion can stretch those capabilities. A crowded product range can also confuse buyers when differences are reduced to technical labels.

There is also a risk of excessive confidence in supply-chain concentration. Control of LCD production does not ensure leadership in every future display technology.

OLED remains important at the high end, and newer emissive display technologies continue developing. Consumer preferences can shift if performance or manufacturing costs change.

The strongest interpretation of the first-half evidence is therefore limited but significant. Chinese brands have built a credible premium challenge, rather than secured permanent leadership.

Their scale, panel access, and Mini LED position improve the odds. Weak demand, faster competitive responses, and falling component prices still prevent a certain outcome.

Three Signals Will Show Whether the Upgrade Is Durable

The next test is whether first-half share gains survive weaker promotions, faster competition, and a less favorable comparison base.

The first signal is third-quarter retail sell-through, particularly in North America, Western Europe, and Latin America. Shipment growth matters less if unsold inventory remains in warehouses or requires heavy discounting.

Healthy sell-through would support the view that TCL and Hisense gained lasting consumer acceptance. Rising channel inventory would suggest that World Cup demand mainly shifted purchases forward.

The second signal is the mix between conventional LCD, Mini LED, RGB Mini LED, and OLED. Mini LED must continue expanding without losing its margin advantage through rapid commoditization.

Samsung’s second-quarter recovery makes this measure especially important. If TCL and Hisense preserve strong shares as more competitors enter, their first-mover advantages will look more durable.

Hisense’s RGB LED performance deserves separate attention within that mix. Its share fell from 77.2% early in the year to 42.9% during the second quarter.

Continued category growth with a stable Hisense position would validate its early investment. Further rapid share loss would show that premium display leadership remains easy to contest.

The third signal is the relationship between panel prices and reported profitability. Falling display costs should eventually support brand margins, assuming promotions do not absorb the entire benefit.

BOE, TCL CSOT, and other panel suppliers face the reverse pressure. Their results will show whether utilization discipline can prevent lower prices from eroding profits.

This tension makes the Chinese supply chain’s structure important. The same panel decline that helps a television brand can weaken its upstream supplier.

Investors should therefore examine profit sources rather than relying on consolidated market share. Growth created through discounting would look different from growth produced by a richer product mix.

Average screen size provides another useful detail within those results. Continued movement toward 65-inch and larger models would support the structural-upgrade argument.

Mini LED penetration supplies a related check. TrendForce’s projection of 24.9 million annual units sets a demanding benchmark after strong first-half adoption.

The evidence available through August points to a genuine change in the global television market. TCL and Hisense are competing closer to the top, while mainland panel manufacturers control most LCD supply.

Yet the next quarter will separate structural progress from event-driven momentum. Watch retail sell-through, premium display shares, and margins before treating the first-half rankings as a final verdict.

The practical question is no longer whether Chinese brands can enter the premium television market. It is whether they can defend that position after Samsung, LG, and Sony fully respond.